The Opportunity Cost of World War I , Module 7-2

The Opportunity Cost of World War One:

Technology Advancement vs. Economic and Human Loss

Norman Miller

HIS 240

We're all familiar with the x-ray machine, artificial fertilizer, and air-traffic control. All are examples of technology that were developed, created, or modified during World War I. Over 40 million men and women lost their lives during the great conflict. So the question is - does the gain of valuable technology outweigh the economic and human loss of the war?

Too Valuable to Die

Meet Harry Moseley.

Moseley, 1914

Moseley is a man you may not be familiar with and, as he worked over 100 years ago, someone you may not have learned about in History class. He is, however, one of the greatest minds the field of Chemistry has ever known.

You see his work each time you look at the Periodic Table of Elements. Outside of inventing the first atomic battery and helping pioneer the use of x-ray spectroscopy, he also founded Moseley's Law which is why the Periodic Table uses atomic numbers today.

In 1914 he turned down a position at Oxford University, one of the most prestigious research institutions in the world, to enlist with the British Army fighting in World War I. In a letter dated August 5, 1915, he told his mother,

Moseley in uniform, 1915

"I duck quite enough when shrapnel comes anywhere near. I am teaching my men prudence by example, and they mostly have now some idea of keeping out of harms way."

He would be dead, 5 days later, killed by a sniper's bullet during the Battle of Gallipoli. 

He was just 27 years old.

His death was so significant that it was reported by both allies and enemies, with even German papers observing his passing as a "matter of great regret." The London Times declared that Moseley was "Too Valuable to Die" in headlines announcing his death.

American physicist Robert Millikan grieved for his fellow scientist, saying:

“Had the European War had no other result than the snuffing out of this young life, that alone would make it one of the most hideous and irreparable crimes in history.”

Author Isaac Asimov

Issac Asimov wrote in his 1964 Biographical Encyclopedia of Science and Technology: 

“His death might well have been the most costly single death of the war to mankind generally.”

He went on to write that he believed Moseley would have won the Nobel Prize for Chemistry had he survived the war. His death led physicist Ernest Rutherford to campaign for the British government to ban key scientists from serving on the front lines of future wars. 

His death has been widely discussed by British historians, and many have speculated what he may have accomplished had he never enlisted in the war. 

As part of the 100th anniversary of Moseley's death, BBC's Roland Pease looked back at the slain physicist's life and death (Audio, 27 min):

Sadly we will never know. Moseley was one of an estimated 40 million fatalities of World War I, and not the only notable scientist affected by the great conflict.

Meet Karl Schwarzschild.

Schwarzschild is another scientist you may not be familiar with. A German Physicist, he has something in common with one you may be a bit more familiar with:

Albert Einstein

In 1915 Schwarzschild solved Albert Einstein's field equations of general relativity...from a trench on the front line. He sent his work to Einstein in a letter.

In a response to Schwarzchild, Einstein, one of the greatest scientific minds of our time, expressed his shock at the solutions, writing: 

“I had not expected that one could formulate the exact solution of the problem in such a simple way”

Schwarzschild died in in 1916 from pemphigus, a rare skin disease he first suffered in 1915 while serving in the military. While he did not die from the bullet of a sniper, his death possibly could have been averted or delayed with early detection and proper care, both of which were impossible in the trenches.

He was 42.

Not all scientific loss involved in World War I were the result of a death. Some caused death.

Meet Fritz Haber.

Apart from being the inspiration for Dr. Evil in the Austin Powers films (I jest), Haber, a Nobel laureate, helped create the Haber-Bosch process, which synthesizes ammonia from hydrogen and atmospheric nitrogen. This process resulted in something that today feeds over half of the world's population: artificial fertilizer. It was also developed before the war, not during the conflict.

He's also remembered for this:

Soldier dying from poison gas attack, World War I

Haber is known as the father of chemical warfare for his development of poisonous gases during the war. He served in a gas unit and encouraged the addition of other physicists and chemists to the war effort, recruiting nobel laureates James Franck, Gustav Hertz and Otto Hahn into his unit, thus taking them from their other scientific pursuits. Years later, upon reflecting on his contribution to chemical warfare, he would say:

“During peace time a scientist belongs to the World, but during war time he belongs to his country.”

He felt so strongly the need to defend his nation that he turned away from his life's work and re-directed it towards the manufacture of poisonous gas, using multiple fellow scientists in his gas units. One must wonder what he may have developed if his passions had been re-directed towards peaceful applications, rather than inventive ways to kill his fellow human being.

This next scientist we've already met.

Albert Einstein published his theory of general relativity in 1916, smack dab in the middle of World War I. How was he able to do such work while many of his contemporaries were fighting for their lives in the trenches? In 1901 Einstein renounced his German citizenship and left for Switzerland. While it is speculation, one must wonder if he would have published one of the most influential scientific papers of all time if he had been drafted into the German war machine. 

In a response to the German Manifesto of the Ninety-Three German Intellectuals, Einstein lambasted the war, writing:

"It would be a disaster should this mood pervade the educated classes. Not only would it be a disaster for civilization, but—and we are firmly convinced of this—a disaster for the national survival of individual states—in the final analysis, the very cause in the name of which all this barbarity has been unleashed."

He escaped the cannon fodder of the war and went on to do a lifetime of important scientific work.

We cannot know what may have been created, but we can measure the deaths and time the war robbed from the scientific world. It is also impossible to determine the potential among the millions killed who were not considered scientific minds, or great intellects.

Meet the child army of Britain:

It has been estimated that 250,000 boys under the age of 18 enlisted in Britain alone. Who is to know how many Einsteins, Habers, Schwarzchilds, or Moseleys were among the hundreds of thousands of boys? Among the other 40 million killed in action?

War Isn't Free

Meet the U.S. defense spending budget of 1914:

12% of Gross Domestic Product.

Now meet it's cousin, the same budget in 1918:

72% of Gross Domestic Product.

Fisk

These are estimates from a country that did not see 4 long winters of war, and largely was unaffected economically by the conflict. 

According to Harvey Fisk in his 1924 assessment of the financial repercussions of the war, the total cost was estimated at $208 Billion, $80 Billion of which in gold of which could: 

“reproduce all of the railway mileage of the world and there would still be over twenty billion dollars to spare for some other use.”

It is impossible to determine what programs, infrastructure, and investments the money spent during the war would have been contributed towards without the war. But we can see how it led to a economic nightmare.

The United States used its newfound financial advantage over Europe by giving out loans estimated at $11 billion. These included loans to Britain, France, and eventually even Germany. After the Treaty of Versailles, Germany faced reparations in the billions of dollars.

Germany was simply unable to pay this debt and this, mixed with a downturn from other European powers, and the inability for American banks to recoup their loans, helped create one of the darkest times of the 20th century: The Great Depression.

Children during Great Depresssion

In Summary

Can we say for certain what discoveries and inventions Harry Moseley and Karl Schwarzschild may have had if they had not gone to war? No. Can we determine what work Fritz Haber may have accomplished if he had not been pushed towards chemical warfare? No. Can we know for certain what social programs, engineering feats, and scientific investment would have resulted from the money lost to the war? No. 

It is difficult to determine if the increased spending by wartime governments towards technologies that eventually led to peacetime applications directly led to said technology being created, or if it simply increased the rate of creation and innovation. 

While it is impossible to put a definitive number on the years these discoveries would have been delayed without this increased spending, it is possible to count the debt accrued by the participants, the number of lives loss, and the loss to potential scientific progress byway of the deaths of prominent scientists in the war. 

By comparing this loss of life to the development of positive technologies such as artificial fertilizer, air traffic control, and mobile X-ray machines (all utilizing technology already developed pre-war), it is clear that the opportunity cost of World War I was too great and the technology gain does not outweigh the economic, cultural, and scientific loss.